Bottom 10 Predictions for 2010

In mid December, Justin Cormack (of Technology of Content fame) and I agreed to do a little retrospective on the worst things we’d seen during 2009.  While Justin wasted no time in submitting a great post on the topic, I blinked on or around December 15th and when I opened my eyes it was January 2010 already, so in an attempt to regain Justin’s respect I offer a humble “Bottom 10 Predictions for 2010”, in no particular order:

  1. Content Management RFPs will continue to be liberally strewn hither and yon like confetti at a WASP wedding, with zero regard for their efficacy or otherwise.
  2. There will be at least one spectacular† flameout when an otherwise solid WCMS is shoehorned into a completely inappropriate use case, and then explodes in a shower of shiny sparks. This will be a direct result of WCM continuing to be misidentified as a single commoditised use case – an issue that has been beaten to death in the past, but still has no remedy in sight.
  3. Map / reduce will be touted as the One True Answer to Everything, while RDBMS stalwarts struggle in vain to calm the hysteria and remind everyone that it’s “merely” a handy way to crunch large data sets.
  4. Suffering indigestion, OpenText will divest themselves of at least one of their product portfolio.  My money is on the former Tower products acquired via the Vignette purchase – they were a going concern before Vignette acquired them, and have remained relatively independent since then.
  5. SMB / CIFS will remain the most popular remote filesystem protocol in existence, despite being the worst (except for all the others).  (with apologies to Winston Churchill)
  6. JCR will continue to be ignored by all of the “top shelfCMS vendors – rapid adoption of CMIS on the server side will amplify the collective yawn that JCR evokes amongst CMS vendors.
  7. Momentum will continue to build on the CMIS client side – I humbly disagree with Pie’s #3 prediction for 2010 on this point, as there’s already been significant CMIS client development, and that’s before the spec has even been ratified.  (I realise this is more of a “top” prediction, than a “bottom” prediction, but even a curmudgeon has his sunny moments!)
  8. The Cloud will be the teenage sex of 2010 – everyone says they’re doing it, but only a small subset really understands what’s involved and an even smaller minority of those are actually doing it “for real”.  (note: The Cloud narrowly beat out Enterprise 2.0 for this title – I expect to see a great return match next year!).
  9. (speculation) Ektron will be acquired by Microsoft in order to jump start Sharepoint’s WCM capabilities.
  10. (super speculation!) Duke Nukem Forever will be released and will cure all those evil Wiiborgs of their sordid, physically demanding “gaming”.

And there you have it – my bottom 10 list for 2010.  I hope this is enough to regain Justin’s respect, although I may have gone a little overboard with one or two items on this list.  😉

† “Spectacular” meaning it will become a cautionary tale in CMS circles.

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Published in: on 2010-01-07 at 4:32 pm  Comments (3)  
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